Will Russia Invade Ukraine? Moldova? What Should We Believe When Actions and Words Conflict?

State Of War

An article from the Kyiv (Kiev) Post

March 28, 2014, 12:37 a.m. | Ukraine — by Christopher J. Miller, Mark Rachkevych

Picture's description:
Ukraine’s new National Guard trains on March 17. The nation is scrambling to mobilize 40,000 National Guard and reserve members to bolster a Defense Ministry with 180,000 personnel. Fears are high of a Russian invasion of Ukraine’s mainland, following its invasion and annexation of the Crimean peninsula.

As you can see from this image from the article "State of War," Russian military units surround Ukraine from the North, South and East.       

See expandable image from source

The article states in part: 

Estimates of Russian troops on war footing vary, from the West’s estimates of more than 30,000 to the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council’s calculations of 100,000 soldiers ready to strike.

There are, in addition, 700 tanks and armed personnel carriers staging near the eastern border, according to Dmitry Tymchuk, head of the Center for Military and Political Research in Kyiv. He added there are 240 warplanes and helicopters, 150 artillery systems of various calibers, and 100 units of multiple rocket launcher systems.

In Transnistria, Tymchuk noted, there are 2,000 Russian boots on the ground, of whom 800 are commandoes.

But presidential chief of staff Serhiy Pashynsky said at a briefing that “no activity of Russian troop mobilization” has been spotted near Ukraine’s borders for two days now.

Still, experts noted that the battle-ready force is capable of cutting Ukraine off from the sea with a westward thrust, chopping perhaps a quarter of Ukraine’s territory into Moldova.

Russian President Vladimir Putin hinted at a plan to do this in his March 18 speech at the Kremlin, during which he spoke of righting historical wrongs, specifically calling out the loss of those regions of Ukraine.

(In my opinion, the focus on Putin's March 18 speech is spot on. This may very well be seen as Putin's Mein Kampf. The clues as to what he may do are contained therein)

“After the (1917) Revolution, the Bolsheviks… included into the Ukrainian Soviet Republic significant territories of southern Russia. This was done without taking into consideration the national composition of residents, and today its modern southeast of Ukraine,” Putin said.

Analyzing the article, "State of War," for a minute in light of other events: 

Russia's foreign minister claims there is no intention to invade Ukraine. Perhaps we need to ask the Russians what they consider Ukraine so as not to be deceived by semantics. What Ukrainians and Westerners mean by Ukraine may not be what the Russian government means by Ukraine (see above quote for where I'm going with this). 

U.S. Defense officials say the numbers of troops far exceeds the amount needed for a training exercise. And the fact that there is no real evidence any large-scale exercises have occurred, and that none of the troops have returned to their bases, is also concerning to U.S. observers.

"We're all concerned about what Russia is doing on the border of Ukraine . . . The size of the forces have a message that are not congruous with respecting the borders." -- Gen. Philip Breedlove, NATO's supreme allied commander for Europe

Near Ukraine's eastern border, troops are reportedly being supplied with food and medical supplies, which they would need in the event of further operations -- a development that U.S. intelligence agencies have noted with alarm.

Let's not forget that NATO's commander cut his time short in Washington as he was called back to Europe out of concerns of Russia's buildup and intentions. 

So far the only steps taken by NATO to reassure NATO allies close to the action has been increasing the number of U.S. aircraft in regular NATO air patrols over the Baltics and beefing up a previously planned training exercise with the Polish air force. More steps are being considered.

In fact, the cake-walk through Crimea and the weak response of the West is most certainly going to encourage, not discourage, the Russian bear's plans in regard to Russian-speakers in Ukraine, Moldova and wherever else they are thinking of moving. At this rate, by the time the U.S. and NATO responds to the level of getting Russia's intentions, Putin could be expected to have taken and consolidated holds in all of Moldova and all of Ukraine, if he so chose. Even a cursory look at statements by potential 2016 U.S. presidential contenders and leaders in Congress would give no pause to Putin. There isn't a Reagan or a JFK among them. And European leaders make the U.S. ones look hawkish. 

As a Christian, the positive in this is that Ukraine and Moldova will only have God to look to for help. There isn't a power on Earth who is interested in standing up for their rights and liberty beyond giving political speeches and slapping on targeted sanctions. If God is their only hope, perhaps the eternal future of Ukrainians and Moldovans is bright indeed. 

"Men look on the outer appearance while God looks on the heart," the Lord said to the prophet Samuel who looked for a king to anoint. And upon this Rock (the truth that Jesus is the Christ, the Son of the living God), Christ said He would build His Church and the gates of Hell/Hades would not prevail against it. Satan may roar and have his earthly servants do his bidding, but there is only one to whom every knee shall bow and tongue confess that He is Lord, the Lord Jesus Christ. 

Please join me in praying for Ukraine and Moldova and other countries in the eye of the Russian storm: 

1) that God would hear from His people. Pray that people would repent, put their trust in the Lord and ask Him to work His will in their midst. 

2) Pray that the Russians, if there intent is evil, would experience embarrassing and debilitating issues with their deployments around Moldova and Ukraine. 

3) Pray that President Obama and Europe would respond with one voice, recognizing that yesterday it was Crimea, tomorrow it may be Moldova's restive republic and the day after that Eastern Ukraine. But once those happen, what of the rest of Ukraine? What of NATO's closest member nations? What of Europe? At what point will Putin stop and what will stop him? 

4) Pray for a bold and courageous people to rise up in Ukraine and Moldova that will resist with all of their might. May they exact a cost on Russian forces that would give Putin pause, the Ukrainian and Moldovan people reason to cheer and the world an underdog cause it can embrace. 

5) pray that President Putin would withdraw his forces. 

6) Pray for the people of Crimea who had no interest in being a part of Russia. May God give them wisdom, courage and the Christians among them boldness and spiritual power.